This will place a premium on institutional abilities to handle surprises and adapt to rapidly shifting realities. Because of the changes that are increasingly moving war away from the known and into the unknown, the unforeseen will become the norm. A return to thinking holistically about war, its nature, its character-indeed, its long history-and the demands it places on nations and military professionals is called for.Ĭomprehending the future of war will require not only technical, tactical, and bureaucratic mastery, but also a deep understanding of war as a total construct.
The old ways are rapidly being supplemented by new ones legacy organizations, processes, and thought are increasingly at odds with emerging conditions. To do otherwise is to risk basing plans, hopes, and the security of the nation and world on a tenuous footing. 4 Understanding and action must be rooted in accepting that war’s fundamental nature shapes and constrains the phenomenon, and that its character flows from and interacts with war’s human dimensions.
Naval leaders must come to grips with how the character of war (how war is fought) is changing within the context of the enduring nature of war (the human element: a politically guided clash of actively opposed wills). Indeed, it was because of such changes that they turned to history. This generation’s predecessors looked to history and theory, even in periods of dramatic technological change, geostrategic upheaval, and economic dislocation. The DoN must look elsewhere for insights and guidance. Knowledge gained from one’s own experiences informs a shrinking portion of the emerging reality. War is changing at a dramatic rate and scope. Business as usual will no longer suffice. Getting better means thinking and doing differently. Prevailing against the capable and powerful opponents that are emerging demands the Department of the Navy (DoN) up its game-it must get better at all aspects of war, from political and strategic thinking through plans and procurement to tactics and techniques. This, perhaps, is why the old warning not to fight the last war should resonate. Organizations and people who can rapidly and effectively adapt are more likely to prevail those who cannot, will fail. Surprise at every level is likely-technical, tactical, operational, strategic. The known is becoming unknown the predictable, unpredictable. Navy and Marine Corps face daunting times, particularly with the return of great power competition.
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